CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-14T09:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-14T09:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29585/-1
CME Note: Source of this CME is an eruption of a large northern filament seen after 2024-03-14T08:00Z. The erupting filament stretches from ~N50E15 to N30W15. The eruption is best seen in EUV STEREO A 304/195 and SDO AIA 304/171/193. There are a dimming area (mostly to the north) and post-eruptive arcades centered around ~(N35W05). No arrival/glancing blow signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-17T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
A possible cursory glancing blow, seen in the simulation timeline at Earth. https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29584/1 Model Inputs: 2024-03-14T09:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=8.0, Lat.=35.0, Speed=848.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2024-03-14T13:00Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-03-17T15:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=3 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-15T20:00Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-17T12:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240314_130000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gifLead Time: 73.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-03-14T13:30Z
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